Strong non-US currency hedging have mood down
Investors need to be reminded of is: the most striking is Friday this week, will be released in August non-farm U.S. employment report, the key data is bound to cause huge fluctuations in the market, so as to specify the next step in the direction of the foreign exchange market.
Today's market, due to the regional stock index tumbled as scheduled, the market strong risk aversion, resulting in the non-US currencies have declined, the dollar index strength. But then, the United States announced a series of mixed economic data, which set off waves of the market. U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced, ISM-New York 8 seasonally adjusted current business conditions index fell to 55.6, indicating business activity in New York City in August fell to one-year low. The United States in August Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 56.7, the data is less than market expectations and last month. All these have provided the U.S. economy slowing further corroboration. However, the U.S. seasonally adjusted 6, the S & P price index was up 0.3% the previous month, in August U.S. consumer confidence index was 53.5, were better than expected. These shows U.S. consumer confidence has improved and prices inched up, to help ease the U.S. economy will soon slide into the second recession worries. Affected by this, the non-US currencies have rebounded, the dollar index is down frustrated. In addition, the Federal Reserve (FED) announced in August rate meeting minutes of the Fed Open Market Committee members that if the prospect of significantly weakening, the Fed will adopt a new support measures. At current prices, the Fed's preferred debt, but members of other policy options to open the door. Members considered that further investment in bonds is a more appropriate choice, but if the market environment changes, then re-invest in mortgage-backed securities may be the ideal choice. Meanwhile, members of the national debt for the Fed's plan to reinvest disagreement. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, the dollar index has fallen below the recent increase in channel, the bottom support 200 days were 81.39 in the vicinity of the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 83.75 in the vicinity. It is expected that the market outlook, U.S. dollar index could drop further.
EUR / USD: Low: 1.2623 High: 1.2743 close: 1.2683
Latest Eurostat data show that in August HICP HICP initial value rose by 1.6% in the euro zone in July unemployment rate was 10.0%, are consistent with market expectations. Despite strong economic growth in the euro zone in the second quarter, but the unemployment rate continued at a level of 10%, close to the 12-year high, underscoring the threat to economic recovery. Affected, the euro finished lower. From a technical chart perspective, the euro has broken through the recent decline, the current 100-day 1.271 1 still suppressed, the more resistance in the Fibonacci 50% retracement of 1.28 near the bottom of support in the Fei Bona 38.2% retracement of the Church around 1.26. It is expected that the market outlook, the euro continued to rebound in the short term there is still space, but space is limited.
USD / JPY: Low: 83.80 High: 84.66 close: 84.15
Monday the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held an emergency meeting and announced to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.1%, and decided to expand the size of its tool for financing supply to expand from 20 trillion yen to 30 trillion yen, which at 30 trillion yen in 6 months financing instruments will have 10 trillion yen. However, after expansion of the scale in line with market had expected, which was expecting the central bank has made some radical moves in the Shichangrenshi Gengjia disappointed by this Ying Xiang, the yen against major currencies sharply Pan Sheng Duan. Thus, the Bank of Japan did not adopt a more radical move, as there is a clear indication that the fragile economy was strong against the yen exchange rate still leaves the case of FLAC, thereby weakening the yen once again rose. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, USDJPY is still in the big downward path, the lower support rail 84 in Bryn taken down near the top of the resistance near the channel rail 85, is expected to market outlook, U.S. dollar against Japanese yen still further to fall.
AUD / USD: Low: 0.8858 High: 0.8956 close: 0.8902
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics, 7, seasonally adjusted retail sales increased 0.7%, higher than expected 0.4% growth, due to the unexpectedly strong, indicating strong economic growth in the second quarter and continued momentum in the second half, so as to provide Australian some support, but the boost is limited. Because the Australian dollar remained under Australian general election may occur by the coalition government to suppress the adverse political situation. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, the Australian dollar dropped back again the recent downward path, the above resistance around 0.8935 in the 200-day, 100 days of its below support at 0.8814 are close to the Australian market outlook is expected to shock consolidation.
GBP / USD: Low: 1.5325 High: 1.5477 close: 1.5342
UK latest figures show that in July consumer credit increased 173 million pounds, consistent with estimates, but in June to reduce 059 million pounds; the same time, the July number of mortgage approvals have increased, the UK M4 money supply in July than growth of 0.4% the previous month, as October 2009 the highest growth rate since. Thus, we can see the British economy to stimulate personal consumption, the effectiveness of initiatives have begun to play. However, the pound has not been lifted. Due to market concerns about the global economic outlook prompted investors to sell higher risk of currency, so that the whole pound down. In addition, from a technical point of view graphics, sterling has fallen below the 200-day 1.5432, there are channels on the back foot track down the confirmation requirement. Near its lower support at 1.52, the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5537 near the expected market outlook, sterling has further downside.
USD / CAD: lowest price: 1.0571 High: 1.0672 close: 1.0647
Statistics Canada recently released its second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.5% the previous quarter, growth of 2.0% annual rate, slower than the first quarter of 5.8%. Affected by this, the Canadian dollar down by pressure. Meanwhile, commodities such as crude oil prices also pressured the Canadian dollar. From a technical chart perspective, the Canadian dollar since mid-May the two-wave large-scale fluctuations, and constitute a double bottom pattern, see the 4th in the July lows in between 1.0660-1.0680 in itself can refer to more Canadian dollars for the current recent support level. Meanwhile, the dollar against the Canadian dollar in the recent rising channel, the above resistance at around 1.07, below support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.05 in the vicinity, it is expected that the market outlook, U.S. dollar finished lower against the Canadian dollar has possible.
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