The dollar index will maintain the trend shock consolidation
All major currencies except the Canadian dollar continued to rise, the basic is to maintain the shock consolidation trend, the dollar index is between 82 to 82.5 in small shocks order. From a technical chart perspective, the dollar index is currently up for last week's sharp correction, the below support at 200 days were 81 near its top resistance in the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 83 in the vicinity. It is expected that the market outlook, U.S. dollar index will remain choppy tone trend.
Today's market, the lack of important economic data on the stock market has no clear direction guidance, profit taking and technical adjustment is the main reason for exchange rate fluctuations. Bank of England announced August 4-5 meeting showed the central bank policy meeting this month on the decision-makers to relax and tighten the policy had to consider two possibilities are given, and the voting results to 8:1 to keep interest rates at 0.5 % of the record low of change, unanimously decided to continue to maintain the quantitative easing policy unchanged at 200 billion pounds. Meanwhile, MPC members asked the nine-third consecutive rate hike by 25 basis points.
EUR / USD: Low: 1.2821 High: 1.2923 close: 1.2858
Auction 5 billion euros in Germany 10-year bonds, the minimum bid rate for the record 2.37%, but the German debt auction was very successful. This reflects the future investors still think the economy with a high degree of uncertainty. Meanwhile, Portugal's Treasury auction went very smoothly, they give some boost euro. From a low of 1.2732 this week, the euro rebounded against Ireland and Spain because of market auction debt reacted strongly. The external market is still worried about the euro zone economy, so investors were cautious on the long on the euro. At the same time, we should see whether it is from the European debt worries or concerns from the U.S. economy, the dollar against the euro, are a better hedge options. Therefore, post-euro trend is not optimistic. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, the euro is still in the rising channel, now Tongdaoxiagui get support around 1.2730, the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3 in the vicinity, the euro is expected to short-term market outlook is still space continues to rebound, but the medium-term remains bearish.
USD / JPY: Low: 85.17 High: 85.69 close: 85.40
The yen continued to rise moderately, not far from the 15-year lows, the market will now focus on the Japanese authorities to take action to suppress the yen's rally on news that Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) line Shirakawa Fang Ming next Monday (August 23) will meet to discuss the yen's appreciation, the market expectations for the intervention becomes more and more. However, the recent yen strength as the market expected the United States or into a double-dip recession, caused by increased risk aversion. In addition, Japan has plunged into deflation for many years, Japan's real exchange rate is not particularly high. Therefore, the Japanese government direct intervention in the yen exchange rate risk is not at the same time, G7 members are unlikely to support this practice. Therefore, Japan has remained at the stage of verbal intervention, the future of the Japanese government really intervene in currency markets even if the yen will continue to strength. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, USDJPY is still in the big downward path, the bottom support rail in the Boolean taken down to 84.8 near the top of the resistance near the channel rail 86, is expected to market outlook, U.S. dollar against Japanese yen will continue to decline.
GBP / USD: Low: 1.5495 High: 1.5688 close: 1.5600
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced in August the meeting: to a vote of 8-1 to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and 2,000 billion pounds in the same scale of quantitative easing. Meanwhile, MPC members asked the nine-third consecutive rate hike by 25 basis points. Since the latest minutes of monetary policy to eliminate the market or to relax its monetary policy of speculation, the pound rose as much as over a hundred points, but then lost momentum pounds, had fallen from the days of high. This is mainly because investors recognize that the central bank released the minutes in addition to the risk of weakening the quantitative easing policy, did not reveal more information, Sterling began taking gains. In addition, from a technical point of view graphics, Sterling is still in great rising channel, 200 days were 1.55 in the vicinity of access to support a modest rebound, the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.58 near the expected market outlook, Sterling still continue to rebound requirements.
USD / CAD: lowest price: 1.0267 High: 1.0340 close: 1.0286
Canadian dollar gains, mainly due to the Australian mining giant BHP Billiton on the world's largest fertilizer companies - Potash Corporation of Canada acquired a huge lead. As the foreign bidders may need to add dollars to buy from local investors, the company's equity, mergers and acquisitions successful if the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar will push up. However, the need to remind investors that the wave of the Canadian dollar's gains may be fleeting, because M & A activity in the warm temperature, may still be lost to the haze of the global economic weakness. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, the Canadian dollar last few months has been from 1.01 to 1.08 between the shocks, the recent U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar down 1.05 Difficult near its lower support in the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.025 in the vicinity, it is expected that the market outlook, U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar will likely continue to fall.
AUD / USD: Low: 0.8970 High: 0.9058 close: 0.8985
With the August 21 Australian general election approaching, there was no possibility of the majority party in Parliament is also increasing, this part of investors or risk. If there was no majority of the Australian Parliament last situation, the Government's handling of the mining industry including potential tax problems and a series of bond issuance will be limited by the capacity to adversely affect Australian Kuaidui. Affected, the Australian dollar under pressure down. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, the Australian dollar is still in great rising channel, the above resistance at 0.92 near the bottom of support were 0.8850 in 100 days, near the Australian short-term market outlook is expected upside is limited, more is facing pressure to adjust.
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