Essential to maintain U.S. dollar index was up trend
Crude oil prices last week reached 100% Fibonacci target bit 83.5 after running a more significant decline occurred, now once again returned to the 78 U.S. dollars / barrel in the vicinity. Overall market risk appetite due to recent low and is expected crude oil prices continue to decline in the future there may be.
The dollar index yesterday evening essential to maintain up trend, currently steady at 82.4 in the vicinity, or up to about 2% in October 2008 has been the best day. Not much news yesterday evening, only the U.S. trade balance reported a deficit 49.9 billion U.S. dollars, slightly higher than the estimated 42 billion, while the world's major stock indexes are subject to a substantial drop in risk aversion effect, in addition to various non-US foreign yen in accordance with their respective currencies continue to trend downward during the day. The dollar index fell in June has been below the trend line of the block position, will soon be able to break down toward the previous 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 83.5 line ahead.
EUR / USD: High: 1.3190 Low: 1.2828 close: 1.2834
The euro has continued yesterday evening decline during the day, all day drop of more than 200 points, now back below 1.29. From the overall market sentiment, a recent weakness of the market for investment in the euro has reduced enthusiasm, though the U.S. economic situation, as always, to weak, but the market did not like the comparison Yi Yang had a relatively optimistic about the economic situation in Europe while continuing concern about the euro. The next few days the euro zone industrial production will be announced, GDP and other important data, then it will boost the euro to some extent a concern. From a technical point of view, the euro has just finish the wave of five waves up in the market, now have some of the decline is reasonable, while the euro from 1.29 to 1.2750 range near a Fibonacci retracement of the 34 day MA and 100-day moving average of multiple factors such as support, may make the euro the euro to reverse the trend of recent days all the way down, investors may be the basic data will be combined with the economic trend in the direction of the euro to determine the next step.
GBP / USD: High: 1.5866 Low: 1.5611 close: 1.5622
Sterling continued last night with the day's decline, the biggest decline in all day and even reached 200 points or more. This first part of the data from the impact, such as Britain announced yesterday the number of jobless claims for the reduction of 3,800 people, arrived at the estimated reduction of 1.65 million, and reduce the range of the smallest since January of this year. But compared to this news, the Bank of England Mervyn King's speech is more important. King said the U.S. and the euro zone's economic outlook was highly uncertain, while the Bank of England also think that in appropriate circumstances, may be implemented more of the quantitative easing policy, and lower growth expectations for the United Kingdom. It had more British than the United States is a blow to economic fundamentals, while it also directly on the market's popularity led to pound pressure, which continue to cause a sharp decline yesterday. Although the weak U.S. data after the British set off the process of economic recovery, but officials in recent days a series of position data and look at the UK's economic recovery has not always been smooth, and this will make the pound are likely to face greater pressure. In addition, from a technical point of view graphics, sterling is still rising Di Zai early into the process of a callback, made by Qian Qi Gao Dian transformation from resistance, while Yeshi in June rose Qushi line support since the 1.55 Fujin certain Zhicheng, Touzi can then focus on the performance of sterling.
AUD / USD: High: 0.9134 Low: 0.8932 close: 0.8935
Australia yesterday and not much economic data released, but still continued with the decline in the day, this is more due to the recent overall market's risk appetite has diminished due. We see that the U.S. recently has been less optimistic about the economic situation, which although set off in the early recovery of the economies of Australia, the situation, leading to the euro, Australian dollar and other currencies common rose, but this has resulted in the last week changes in commodity currencies like the Australian new self in the absence of good economic news of the situation, trends and sterling, the euro had tumbled differentiation appeared, and this situation to further deepen this week, all non-US currencies to the common down, the market fully reflects the overall risk aversion. We note the recent addition to this morning the Australian unemployment rate data, the basic message is not too important to be announced, is expected in such an environment will continue under the Australian dollar may decline for some time, until the early run to the high conversion from, but also after rising 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.89 where we can be close to some support.
Dollar / yen: Up: 85.49 Low: 84.71 close: 85.27
Japanese yen early last night to continue to follow the trend and rose during the day, or even close to 15 years once the high point of 84.7 in the vicinity, but as the market for the common currency of all Africa and the United States generated a wave of rapid escape down, now back to around 85.3 level. From a fundamental point of view, although Japan announced in June than-expected machinery orders data, but not important enough to stop the yen's gains were also a number of officials once again the yen made some remarks, such as Ye Tian Jiayan Finance Minister said that exchange rate volatility will once again hurt the Japanese economy, the Cabinet Office vice minister also big? Kohei, also known as the yen exchange rate is now at a critical level, the Bank of Japan will need to take action, but simply not on the foreign exchange market intervention in currency markets too much. Given this condition, we will have to carry out the Bank of Japan intervention in the yen may be wary of. In addition, technical drawing, we can see that last night on the yen has been formed in the days chart obvious awl shape, the small effect of the reversal patterns worth investing in the next period of time to concern.
USD / CAD: Maximum: 1.0480 Low: 1.0300 close: 1.0477
The recent emergence of the Canadian dollar falling sharply, within a few days fell from 1.01 to near 1.04 now. From the economic fundamentals, the Canadian dollar had led the recent rise in employment has declined, together with its neighboring countries, prospects for U.S. economic recovery is still not too optimistic about the possibility of the Canadian economy dragged down by its nature has also been increased, these fundamentals is bound to have the Canadian dollar will have some of the pressure. At the same time from a technical perspective, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar last week after the last two days saw an obvious Venus form, the current trend continues the momentum had still more ferocious, and the Canadian dollar's decline has now exceeded 34,55 , 200-day moving average at 1.04 in the vicinity of the multiple support, then we may have to decline to a low of 1.06 in July near the time may occur only eased.
Gold: Top: 1207.75 Low: 1192.15 Close: 1195.75
Gold price fluctuations shock yesterday evening, around 1200 U.S. dollars integer mark down the maximum amplitude reached 16 U.S. dollars. This also reflects the wide shocks on the market trend for gold is still no clear future direction. At the same time the technical graphics, we can note that the rise in gold price before the halt two weeks earlier in the fall of the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the 1210 U.S. dollars, present only in the 1210-1190 range of shocks, has not been shown a clear direction, it is recommended to investors concerned about the gold or continue to wait for some time to clear the overall direction of the market after the re-admission as well.
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