Euro United States and Japan to maintain short-term shocks up weak trend
Standard & Poor's Monday confirmed that the British long-term debt rating of "AAA" level, but maintained a negative outlook; The company said it expected the UK medium-term optimism about the economy lower than budget assumptions, the British Government's debt burden and this may prove The maximum rating is not consistent. At the same time, Standard & Poor's warned that the British government debt is high because of its "AAA" rating could face the risk of being reduced, which also weighed on sterling movements directly. In addition, the Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Xilai Ke said the U.S. economy is still in a solid growth track, investors should not be weaker than expected because a number of economic reports to be too worried. As Europe and the United States stock market rise, the market risk sentiment picked up, the bottom non-US currencies have rebounded, the dollar index dropped to 84.20 level line. From a technical chart perspective, the dollar index is still in the recent downward path, the bottom support in the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 83.31 near the top of the resistance near the 14 day moving average 84.76, the market outlook, U.S. dollar index is expected to weak shock consolidation.
Today's market, the European Council President Van Rompuy said that the EU (EU) agreed to further concern about debt levels, high-debt countries must tighten budgets, and will expand the scope of budget sanctions. At the same time, the Austrian Minister of Finance of the euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels and other officials of the meeting expressed the hope that the pressure in the banking sector by the end of July to see the test results. But there were reports that European banks to set conditions for stress testing will include the German sovereign debt write off loans, which are in conflict with the report last week related to making the euro hit.
EUR / USD: Low: 1.2547 High: 1.2647 close: 1.2589
Because there were reports that European banks to set conditions for stress testing will include the German sovereign debt by total loans, which are in conflict with the report last week related to making the euro hit. In addition, the euro's rise is mainly due to technical factors hindered, especially in the euro can not rise through the medium-term down trend line. From a technical chart perspective, the euro is still in the large downward path, and the rise in short-term channel Difficult track down, the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 50% retracement of 1.2760 near the bottom of support in 55 day MA near 1.2453, it is expected that the market outlook, the euro will remain weak short-term volatility trend.
AUD / USD: Low: 0.8699 High: 0.8776 close: 0.8767
Latest figures show Australia's five licensed home loans rose after transfer the number increased by 1.9% monthly rate; license limit on the rate increased by 2.6%, better than market expectations, but little effect on the Australian dollar boost; Instead, the bulk of imports of goods in June reduction makes the Australian dollar under pressure directly down, because the data highlighted the China Import and Export of iron ore and copper in China on the decline in demand, which directly affected the two major mineral export of Australia's exports abroad. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, the Australian front line of the current suppressed by 0.88, its 55 day MA below the 0.8639 support near, it is expected that the market outlook, the Australian dollar will remain high and volatile consolidation trend.
GBP / USD: Low: 1.4946 High: 1.5086 close: 1.5020
Britain announced a first quarter GDP data, growth of 0.3%, down 0.2%, as expected, but also released the first quarter of the UK current account deficit of 9.628 billion pounds, is since the third quarter of 2007 maximum value, which directly led to the pound fell to an intraday low of 1.4946. In addition, Standard & Poor's Monday confirmed that the British long-term debt rating of "AAA" level, but maintained a negative outlook; The company said it expected the UK medium-term optimism about the economy lower than budget assumptions, the British Government's debt burden and may prove The highest rating is not consistent. At the same time, Standard & Poor's warned that the British government debt is high because of its "AAA" rating could face the risk of being cut. It also once again weighed on sterling fell from an intraday high. From a technical chart perspective, the rise in sterling in recent Tongdaoxiagui out near its 34 day MA below the 1.4832 support near the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5235 in the vicinity, it is expected that the market outlook, the pound will weak shock consolidation.
USD / CAD: lowest price: 1.0297 High: 1.0386 close: 1.0355
Canada's central bank announced the latest second quarter survey, business sales, investment and the positive outlook for recruitment, but the enthusiasm of the global economic uncertainty due to concern about being suppressed, in addition to the decline in oil prices also weighed on the Canadian dollar's movements . However, we should see additional 93,200 jobs in Canada in June, an increase far higher than market expectations, with the unemployment rate fell to 7.9%, the market re-optimistic economic outlook for Canada, and hopes the Bank of Canada (BOC) in July interest-rate meeting will again raise interest rates. In addition, from a technical chart perspective, the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar's recent decline is still in the channel, its 100 day moving average below the 1.03 support near the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.0458 in the vicinity, it is expected that the market outlook the dollar against the Canadian dollar will continue to decline.
USD / JPY: Low: 88.37 High: 89.15 close: 88.65
Japan's ruling coalition government Sunday in the Upper House election defeat, is expected to seriously affect the Japanese Government to further the reduction of fiscal deficit of action, it would not help Japan's long-term economic development, it also directly led to the Asian market, the Nikkei and yen's decline. However, Japan announced that the latest data show that the appreciation of its manufacturing index had the highest since a two and a half, the yen as the market's overall mood and risk aversion continue to rise. From a technical chart perspective, USDJPY is still in the large downward path, the top of the resistance in the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 89.26 in the vicinity, near the bottom of support 87, it is expected that the market outlook, U.S. dollar against Japanese element will remain up trend.
Gold: Low: 1,194.85 High: 1,212.00 closing price: 1194.85
Gold fell below 1,200 dollars again Monday integer mark, after rising slightly because of last week's profit-taking, but still keep the price since early July been in the form of consolidation range. From a technical chart perspective, adjusting the price of gold is not over, the price of gold below support at 50% Fibonacci retracement of around 1173 U.S. dollars, above resistance at the 55 day moving average around 1213 U.S. dollars, it is expected that short-term market outlook gold will continue to shock consolidation, the medium-term decline.
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