Euro up to face greater resistance or will turn down
In general terms the basis of global economic conditions, the United States, Australia and other countries have announced some better than expected data, and Japan, The president of European Central Bank have issued statements that 支持 Gezi process of economic recovery, which would Shi Chang Zi Ran risk preferences have a certain upgrade. However, while some time ago in Europe's banking system plagued physical problems and the debt problems of the eurozone countries, although it is not the focus of the market, but if the situation turns for the better future of the U.S. economy and the euro-zone countries have shown signs of economic slowdown, the euro may once again under pressure, thus affecting the current rising trend. On the technical side, the dollar index was 83.3 in the vicinity there are some support, if the market outlook, with good economic data, especially if the end of this month the European banking sector stress test results poor performance, the U.S. dollar index reversed nearly a month after the dismal also possible.
Yesterday evening announced the United Kingdom and the European Central Bank interest rate decision, namely to maintain interest rates at 0.5% and 1% unchanged, in line with previous expectations, the market's response was not obvious. Since then the United States announced when the number of claims for unemployment benefits was 45.4 million, lower than the estimated 46 million people, and continued the week for unemployment benefits fell to 441.3 million, lower than the estimated 460 million people. Therefore, the U.S. stock market opened slightly higher, thereby increasing the portion of the market risk appetite, the dollar index has undergone a certain degree of decline. However, the impact of this data clearly did not last long, the dollar index touched the day low of 83.7 after yesterday's rebound, and then presents a rocky market. Euro / dollar: the lowest close 1.2692 1.2711 1.2619 maximum
Euro interest rates announced yesterday the resolution did not immediately lead to greater market volatility, but the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet prospects for European economic recovery boosted optimism about the appropriate market risk appetite, then there have been a wave of the euro rising trend, the day up nearly 100 points. But at the same time we must also see that despite all the market often come out even behind the euro area and global economic recovery, but worse than the market expected to occur from time to time information, such as yesterday's German trade surplus of 10.6 billion data on Johnson and the estimated 13.5 billion surplus and a surplus of 12.8 billion the previous month. In general, the euro's recent appetite for risk is still the market impact of upward trend expected to continue to the main shock, but the upward trend of slowing the pace is still there. From a technical perspective, the euro is close to the end of 2009 round up down trend line since the vicinity of where the 1.2730 and the euro this point and also abc 3 wave rally round to 100% of operating objectives, scheduled for the market outlook, the euro may face greater upward resistance, if the next time the poor performance of the euro euro-zone economy fell, down target is expected to see around 1.24.
USD / JPY: the lowest close 88.42 88.64 87.64 highest
Yen while ago, boosted by the risk aversion test many times previously unsuccessful breakthrough 88-bit integer, but the two attempts on the red 87-bit integer unsuccessfully, to return to the current 88.5 in the vicinity. Recently Japan's own economic situation is not entirely optimistic, yesterday announced the May core machinery orders fall in August 2008 on the biggest, but also the government claimed that the uncertainty of the economic outlook increased. At the same time president of the Bank of Japan Shirakawa is publicly adamant about the situation in Japan's economic recovery. In such uncertain prospects for the economy under the influence, coupled with the recent market risk appetite is still there, still expected the yen's recent movements to the main shock, the shock on the high points in the previous 87 along the vicinity of the Shock along the material in this round up of the Fibonacci 38.2% 89.2 bits back to the vicinity of measurement.
GBP / USD: 1.5241 close 1.5158 Minimum 1.5100 maximum
Sterling fell yesterday, a significant reduction, announced after the market interest rate is not good and the resolution reaction. Although the pound in the United States released the number of unemployment benefits but then after a slight rebound fell again blamed for the lowest level of 1.51. Present from the news perspective, the face of uncertainty in global economic recovery, coupled with the United Kingdom highlights the data itself was not much there, so the UK is expected to hike short-term unlikely. Meanwhile, there is no significant bullish news surface data compared to sterling show in the technical trend of the surface can not be more optimistic. The pound was nearly two months wandering the high point of shock, has not been successful several times upside 1.5250, while the nearby pressure above 1.53 by the end of 2008 so far from the trend line down the formation of blocked sterling market outlook is expected to occur The new wave of down trend, short-term goal to see an integer in the 1.5 mark, read more below support at the round up of the Fibonacci 38.2% back-measuring around 1.4860.
USD / CHF: 1.0564 close 1.0494 Minimum 1.0478 maximum
Switzerland recently released economic data generally mediocre all the basic same as expected, it can be determined after the Swiss franc continue to rise more because of the overall market, driven by risk aversion, while unrelated to their economic situation of Switzerland. Market risk sentiment in the future is not clear under the premise of difficult material, like the Swiss franc after the general continued upward. Meanwhile yesterday, the market claim that if the euro once again close to the 1.30 level against the Swiss franc, the Swiss central bank may intervene again, expected to near the Swiss franc will be the main shock, interval in the previous high of 1.04 with the last round of the fall of Fei Bona Odd 1.06 61.8% return between the measured position.
USD / CAD: 1.0484 close 1.0431 Minimum 1.0375 maximum
The same as a commodity currency and Australian dollar Canadian dollar similar to the recent trend, and the decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories slightly raised crude oil prices news, the Canadian dollar has also been produced on a certain sound. But we also need to note, as the distance from the nearest major economies, the United States, Canada, the United States affected by the economic environment is also relatively large. Although the United States announced yesterday the initial jobless claims for unemployment benefits and the continued good with market expectations, suggesting the U.S. economy does not necessarily occur before the market worried about the second bottom, but then released in May U.S. consumer credit data But in order to reduce 9.15 billion, worse than expected 2.0 billion reduction. These mixed U.S. economic data also reflects Canada's exports to neighboring countries such as the support may not be strong enough. It is expected that affected the Canadian dollar may occur in the afternoon, some sideways. Graphics from a technical point of view also, the Canadian dollar's recent rise in the 1.04 shown in the vicinity of cloud facing greater pressure, the future may require a certain vicinity of the point and compete.
AUD / USD: 0.8791 close 0.8768 Minimum 0.8619 maximum
Recent Australian economic data itself better, and when the good is stronger than expected data releases, coupled with the overall market risk appetite led recent days, the Australian dollar appeared several days of rally. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar support at the previous low of 0.83 was the third consecutive day after a rebound, and successfully break through the clouds early downtrend resistance line and the double repression, as long as the market outlook is not expected to risk significant events, the Australian dollar may Prior to rally up the first goal early high of 0.8850 to see in the near.
Gold: 1207.70 close 1196.45 minimum 1187.35 maximum
The price of gold is still in a down trend, mainly also because the market's overall appetite for risk is increased, leading investors to shift money from the safe haven to which other risk assets. In addition, SAFE has also made China the day before the gold can not claim to be the main channel for foreign investment, which has to a certain extent, suppressed the investor wishes to invest in gold. But we also need to see this round gold is only the callback rate is also maintained at around 70 dollars, although with the recent appetite for risk is relatively dominant impact of the recent gold likely to continue to decline, but from a technical graphics point of view, the price of gold in the clouds, and in 2008 under the border since the long-term rising trend line around 1170 U.S. dollars where there is still support. In this critical point and below, we still believe that gold prices fell only a rising trend among a callback, once the market because of good data makes the risk more emotion to increase substantially the price of gold below the previously mentioned 1170 U.S. dollars important support level, we can think gold may appear a depth of the decline process.
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