Positive economic data prompted U.S. dollar hit a new high
Last night the United States released a better economic data and the euro fell sharply, led to short the dollar. Last night and this morning, the dollar index of an intraday high of 82.35 points for the last year, the highest since May 19. At the time, the U.S. dollar index running off at 82 points above the integer.
Last night the U.S. announced in April consumer confidence index was 57.9, better than the previous value of 52.3, since the December 2008 high.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said this morning: rising budget deficits push up market interest rates.
Currently the market is concerned about the attention focused on Beijing this week, four 2:15 Fed monetary policy. If the Fed tends to raise interest rates to continue rising dollar is not ruled out, the other hand, the Fed is not inclined to raise interest rates, the dollar still callback pressure.
Recent U.S. dollar index is expected to file in from 82.50 points in the vicinity have greater resistance, and the next file in the 80-81 point range of the dollar index has some support.
The debt problems of the euro area member states again suppressing complex yesterday to today, the trend of the euro. Intraday low this morning the euro fell to 1.3144, for the last year, the lowest since April 29. At the time, around 1.32 euros an integer off the basic run down.
Standard & Poor's said last night: down Portugal's sovereign rating, the message directly led to short the euro fell sharply. At the same time the German Free Democratic Party, said yesterday: do not rule out the possibility of Greece for the time being to leave the euro zone. And yesterday's news that Greece 5 years of credit default swaps rose 718 basis points to record the highest. At the same time, international investors interested in buying bonds of Greece cooling.
Therefore, the current investors are still on the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to finalize the details of the Greek aid scheme concerned about emotional support.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said last night: the current euro interest rate is still more appropriate.
The news once again affected the short-term euro.
Fortunately, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet this morning said: Greece not to default. This is a temporary decline in the euro convergence of its.
I think: If you can not stand firm in the future the euro above 1.32 integer-run, not ruled out future test 1.30 euros to the next integer off line. Forecasts for the euro, on file in the 1.34-1.35 range, or greater resistance.
Last night and today, there have been some sterling fell £ intraday low of 1.5224 today, the lowest since April 19. At the time, the pound rebounded slightly in the near 1.5280.
International crude oil futures prices yesterday fell short sterling drag.
But yesterday afternoon, announced in April the British retail sales margin of 13, for the third consecutive rise in 3 months. The data after the callback is to bring some short-term sterling support.
Now pay close attention to the key file location under £ 1.5150. If the position effective below, does not preclude pound continued to fall, the other hand, sterling or the possibility of a re-bounce.
Is expected to pound on the recent stall in the 1.54-1.55 range with some resistance.
Japanese yen last night but once the U.S. stock market correction of 93 integers break off, an intraday high of 92.83. At the time, the yen fluctuated near 93.30.
Of course, this morning announced in March Japan's retail sales growth rate of 4.7%, better than the previous value increased by 4.2%. This is the main reason for the time being restricted Japanese yen.
But the market is still bullish on the future trend of the yen, mainly due to:
1. Recently, Japan's largest life insurance company life insurance companies in Japan: The agency will be overweight or retain foreign bond holdings.
2. Industrial Bank of France (601,166, stock it), said: The Japanese investors are once again open the door of the carry trade, private investors or institutions to buy more assets in foreign bonds or not to hedge the move will be detrimental to the yen.
3. Yesterday, Japan's former central bank governor Toshiro Muto said: curb the yen rally as part of the central bank's policy to consider fine-tuning of monetary policy can be inhibited after the appreciation of the yen, the main consumer price index lower than 1%, continue to loose money policy stance is appropriate.
The author is still adhere to pre-view: if the yen continues to rally or rallies tend to sell mainly. Is expected to close near 92 yen on file in the related integer greater resistance. Of course the recent yen in the vicinity of its 200-day moving average may will have greater resistance. now that the yen in the latest 200-day moving average near 91.34.
The downside is still expected in the Japanese 94-95 range with some support.
Today, the main concern of economic data and events:
Concern: Week 4 Beijing 2:15 and after the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement
Operational recommendations for the major currencies:
The Australian dollar exchange rate:
1. In the Australian dollar fell below 0.9150 is not valid under the premise of Buying.
2. Once the effective future Australian dollar fell below 0.9150, you stop buying Australian dollars to close to 0.90, covering integer relations.
3. Generally the recent rebound in Australian dollar close to 0.93 in the vicinity of the main selling rallies.
4. If the next breakthrough Australian valid integer 0.94 off, you can catching high bid, to see high line.
The U.S. dollar exchange rate:
1. If the short-term U.S. dollar index rallied 82.50 points in the vicinity continue to sell.
2. Early investors can sell U.S. dollars had been watching, waiting for the next buying opportunity.
3. Generally in the dollar index recently fell to close to 81 points off the vicinity of Buying an integer.
4. Of course if the next breakthrough in the dollar index 82.50 points effectively, you can catching the high bid, to see the high line.
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